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Elon Musk At The World Government Summit 2017 In Dubai Conversation With Mohammad Algergawi

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[Elon Musk At The World Government Summit 2017 In Dubai Conversation With Mohammad Algergawi]

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:] Source: L Y B I O . N E T
What a challenge to talk to one of the most in my opinion in life we have seen within this part of the world great people like Al-Khwarizmi, who invented algorithm, globally Newton, Henry Ford, the Wright Brothers, Albert Einstein and Elon Musk. [Applause]

I see you are in a rush. You want to go to places that nobody been. You are reinventing a certain industry from the rocket industry with SpaceX to the car industry with Tesla. What’s your mission life? Why you do whatever you do?

[Elon Musk:]
Sure, well, first of all thank you for having me. It’s an honor to be here and we’re having a really, really great time with my kids in Dubai. It’s really been fantastic. I’d really encourage anyone who hasn’t been to visit. What a great city?

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
Thank you.

[Elon Musk:] Source: LYBIO.net
And in terms of the motivations, I guess, this sort of kind of a long version of the explanation but essentially the – when I was a kid, I was wondering – kind of what’s the meaning of life, like why are we here, what’s it all about and I came to the conclusion that what really matters is trying to understand the right questions to ask. And the more that we can increase the scope and scale of human consciousness, the better we are able to ask these questions.

And so, I think that there are certain things that are necessary to ensure that the future is good and some of those things are in the long-term having long-term sustainable transport and sustainable energy generation; and to be a space-faring civilization and for humanity to be out there among the stars and be a multi-planetary species.

I mean I think that being a multi-planet species and being out there among the stars, it’s important for the long-term survival of humanity. And that’s one reason kind of like life insurance for life collectively; life as we know it, but then the part that I find personally most motivating is that it creates a sense of adventure and it makes people excited about the future.

And if you can consider two futures, one where we are forever confined to Earth until eventually, something terrible happens, or another future where we are out there on many planets. Maybe even going beyond the solar system. I think that the second version is incredibly exciting and inspiring and they need to be reasons to get up in the morning.

You know life can’t just be about solving problems otherwise what’s the point; there’s gotta be things that people find inspiring and make life worth living.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
So what is life for you? I mean, you look at our life and I heard you before speaking is the dream, is it a a million, is it a million deed, what is life for Elon Musk?

[Elon Musk:]
I find – as I get older I find that question to be maybe more and more confusing or troubling or uncertain. Like particularly when you see the advancement of something like video games you know like say forty years ago, you had video games, the most advanced video game would be like Pong where you had like two rectangles and a dot you know like batting it back and forth.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
I played it.

[Elon Musk:]
Oh yeah you need to, exactly.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
That cool.

[Elon Musk:]
It sort of dates you a little bit, but we both played the same game. And that was like well that was a pretty fun game at the time. But now you can see a video game that’s photo realistic, almost photo realistic and millions of people playing simultaneously. And you see where things are going with virtual reality and augmented reality. And if you extrapolate that out into the future with any rate of progress at all like even 0.1% or something like that a year, then eventually those games will be indistinguishable from reality. They will be so realistic you will not be able to tell the difference from that game and the reality as we know it. And then it seems like well how do we know that that didn’t happen in the past and that we’re not in one of those games ourselves.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
Interesting, interesting.

[Elon Musk:]
I mean could be.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
Everything is possible in life.

[Elon Musk:]
I mean there’s – like I mean yeah particularly like things seem to be accelerating to some – to something.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
Isn’t it – I mean if you look at our life, has seen in the past 100 year, life have been exhibiting quite fast.

[Elon Musk:]
Yeah.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
And the past twenty.

[Elon Musk:]
It’s getting faster and faster.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
Is it more to slow. So my question is really how life will be in earth 20, 30, 50 years from now our vocation, our transport? How do you see it?

[Elon Musk:] Source: LYBIO.net
Well, I think this is one of those things that’s quite difficult to predict. When you think of say I mean the first controlled powered flight was 1903 with the Wright Brothers and then 66 years later we put the first people on the moon. I mean that – if you’d asked people say in 1900, what are the odds of – you know, a man landing on the moon they would have said that’s ridiculous. And if you try to talk to them about the Internet, they would not even know what the heck you even – what you’re talking about like this sounds so crazy.

But today with a hundred dollar device, you can video conference with anyone in the world on the other side of the world for and if you have a Wi-Fi connection – just for – it’s basically free, free to have an instant visual communication with anyone or even with millions of people you know with social media you can communicate to millions of people simultaneously. So, and you can Google something and ask any question it’s like an article of wisdom, that you can ask almost any question and get an instant response. It would be incredibly difficult to predict these things in the past, even the relatively recent past.

So I think the one thing that we compete quite certain of is that any predictions we make today for what the future will be like in fifty years will be wrong. That’s for sure. I mean I think directionally I can tell you what I hope the future has as opposed to maybe what it will be because this may just be wishful thinking. I mean I hope we are out there on Mars and maybe beyond Mars, the moons of Jupiter, I hope we are – we’re traveling frequently throughout the solar system perhaps preparing for missions to nearby star systems.

I think all of this is possible within fifty years. And I think that will be very excited to do that. And I think what we’ll see autonomy and artificial intelligence advance tremendously. I think that’s actually quite near-term. My guess is in probably ten years, it will be very unusual for cars to be built that are not fully autonomous, ten years.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
Ten years from now.

[Elon Musk:] Source: LYBIO.net
Yeah, I think almost all cars built will be capable of full autonomy in about ten years. As it is the Tesla cars that are made today have the sensor system necessary for full autonomy and we think probably enough compute power to be safer than a person. So it’s mostly just a question of developing the software and uploading the software. And if it turns out that the compute power, that more compute power is needed, we can easily upgrade the computer.

And so that’s all Tesla has built since October of last year. And other manufacturers will follow and do the same thing. So getting in a car will be like getting in an elevator. You just tell it where you want to go and it takes you there with extreme levels of safety and that will be normal, that just be normal. For elevators there used to be elevator operators, you get in the big guy moving a lever. Now you just get in and you press the button and that’s taken for granted. So autonomy will be widespread.

The – I think one of the most troubling questions is artificial intelligence. And I don’t mean narrow AI like vehicle autonomy I would put in the narrow AI class. It’s narrowly trying to achieve a certain function. But deep artificial intelligence or what is sometimes called artificial general intelligence where you can have AI that is much smarter than the smartest human on Earth. This I think is a dangerous situation.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:] Source: LYBIO.net
Why it is dangerous? I mean there is two view; one view is the artificial intelligence to help humanity, there is another school of think or thought is artificial intelligence as a threat to humanity. Why is it?

[Elon Musk:]
Well, I think it’s both. You know – it’s like – one way to think of it is, imagine we’re going to be visited – imagine you’re very confident that we’re going to be visited by super intelligent aliens in, let’s say, 10 years or 20 years at the most; super intelligent.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
So you think within 20 years –

[Elon Musk:]
Yeah so.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
We’ll have alien in Earth?

[Elon Musk:]
Well, digital super intelligence will be like an alien.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
It will be like an alien?

[Elon Musk:]
Yeah.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
But my question is do you think there is either intelligent life outside there?

[Elon Musk:]
It seems probable, but I think this is one of the great questions in physics and philosophy is where are the aliens; maybe they’re among us, I don’t know. Some people think I’m an alien. [Applause] Not true, not true.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:] Source: LYBIO.net
But may be we are alien.

[Elon Musk:]
Of course I’d say that, wouldn’t I?

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
May be we are alien, Elon. I mean if you look at this part of the world –

[Elon Musk:]
Yeah.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
They believe that human being are not from Earth, they came from somewhere else.

[Elon Musk:]
Maybe.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
Eve and Adam came from somewhere else to Earth, so in a way, human being alien to this land. Do you think we’ll make contact with alien within the next 50 years?

[Elon Musk:] Source: LYBIO.net
Well, that’s a really tough one to say. Um… I mean if there are super intelligent aliens out there they’re probably already observing us, that would seem quite likely, and we just are not smart enough to realize it.

But I could do some back of the envelope calculations and any advanced alien civilization that was at all interested in populating the galaxy, even without exceeding the speed of light, even if you’re only moving at, lets say. 10% or 20% of the speed of light, you could populate the entire galaxy in, let’s say, 10 million years, may be 20 million years max. This is nothing in you know – the grand scheme of things.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
Once you said you want to die in Mars. Why?

[Elon Musk:]
I don’t – to be clear; I don’t want to die on Mars. But, it’s like, if – I mean we’re all going to die someday, and if you’re going to pick someplace to die then why not Mars.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
Okay.

[Elon Musk:]
You know. If we’re born on Earth, why not die on Mars. Seems like maybe it would be quite exciting. But, so I think given the choice of dying on Earth or dying on Mars, I’d say, yeah for sure, I’d die on Mars. But it’s not some kind of Mars death wish. And if I do die on Mars, I just don’t want it to be on Impact.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
Okay, got it.

[Elon Musk:]
Good.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
Let’s come back to Earth actually.

[Elon Musk:]
Okay.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
You tweeted that you are building a tunnel under Washington D.C. Why? What is it?

[Elon Musk:]
Well, it’s a secret plot.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
Okay.

[Elon Musk:]
Just between us.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
Okay. Nobody heard you.

[Elon Musk:] Source: LYBIO.net
Yeah, exactly. Please keep that secret. I think this is going to sound a little – I mean it seems like somewhat trivial or silly, but I’ve been saying this for many years now, but I think that – that the solution to urban congestion is a network of tunnels under cities. And you could – when I’d say – I don’t mean a 2D plane of tunnels, I mean tunnels that go many levels deep. So you can always go deeper than you can go up, like that the deepest mines are taller than the tallest buildings.

So you could have tunnels – a network of tunnels that has 20, 30, 40, 50 levels; as many levels as you want really, and so given that you can overcome the congestion situation in any city in the world. The challenge is just figuring out how do you build tunnels quickly and at low cost and with high safety.

So if tunneling technology can be improved to the point where you can build tunnels, fast, cheap, and safe, then that would completely get rid of any traffic situations in cities. And so I think – that’s why I think it’s an important technology.

And Washington D.C., L.A., and most of the major American cities; most major cities in the world suffer from severe traffic issues. And it’s mostly because you’ve got these buildings which are tall buildings that are 3D and you have a road network that is one level. And then people generally want to go in and out of those buildings at the exact same time. So then you’d get the traffic jam.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:] Source: LYBIO.net
Let’s come back to your here in Dubai. The first time I met you it was 4th of June, 2015 at your office in SpaceX. And I asked you, would you have a presence in UE; and your answer was, I’m busy with China, maybe not in the near future.

[Elon Musk:]
Yeah.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
And almost a year and half later we are here. Seem time goes quite fast.

[Elon Musk:] Yeah.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
Why now?

[Elon Musk:]
Well, I think actually things going reasonably well in China. So we had some initial challenges figuring out charging, service infrastructure and various other things. But now it’s actually going fairly well and so the timing seems to be good too. I really make a significant debut in this region starting in Dubai. Yeah.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
A new opinion, what is the new disturbing thing that will come in technology next. What’s next in technology?

[Elon Musk:]
What’s next in technology?

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
That will disturb the way we live, the way we think, the way we do business.

[Elon Musk:] Source: LYBIO.net
Well, the most near-term impact from a technology standpoint is autonomous cars, like fully self-driving cars. So that’s going to be – that’s going to happen much faster than people realize. So, and that – it’s going to be a great convenience to be an autonomous car, but there are many people who their jobs it is to drive. So, if – in fact, I think it might be the single largest employer of people is driving in various forms. And so, then we need to figure out new roles for what do those people do, but it will be very disruptive and very quick.

And I should characterize what I mean by quick. Because there are – ‘quick’ means different things to different people.

There are over 2 billion vehicles in the world, approaching, in fact, approaching 2.5 billion cars and trucks in the world.

The total new vehicle production capacity is about 100 million which makes sense because the life of a car or truck before it’s finally scrapped is about 20, 25 years.

So the point at which we see full autonomy appear will not be the point at which there is massive societal upheaval because it will take a long time to make enough autonomous vehicles to be – to disrupt employment. So that disruption I’m talking about will take place over about 20 years, but still 20 years is a short period of time to have, I think something like 12% to 15% of the workforce, be unemployed.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
Okay. Thank you. This is the largest global government Summit we have over 139 governments here. If you want to advise government officials to be ready for the future what is three thing or three advise you’ll give them?

[Elon Musk:]
Well, I think the first bit of advice would be to really pay close attention to the development of artificial intelligence.

I think this is – we need to just be very careful in how we adopt artificial intelligence and to make sure that researchers don’t get carried away because sometimes what happens is a scientist can get so engrossed in their work, they don’t necessarily realize the ramifications of what they’re doing.

So I think it’s important for public safety that we – that governments keep a close eye on artificial intelligence and make sure that it does not represent a danger to the public.

Let’s see, secondly I would say, we do need to think about transport in general. And there’s the movement towards electric vehicles, sustainable transport, That – I think that’s going to be good for many reasons. But again not something that happens immediately, that’ll happen slower than the self-driving vehicles. So that’s probably something that happens over 30 or 40 years, the transition to electric vehicles.

So thinking about that in context, the demand for electricity will increase dramatically. So currently in terms of total energy usage in the world, it’s about one-third electricity, about one-third transport, about one-third heating. So over time that will transition to almost all, not all, but predominantly electricity which means that the demand for electricity will probably triple. So it’s going to be very point to think about how do you make so much more electricity. And um…

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:] Source: LYBIO.net
Seem to have an easy job. That’s it, there’s no more challenges for that?

[Elon Musk:]
I think may be these things do play into each other a little bit, but what to do about mass unemployment. This is going to be a massive social challenge. And I think ultimately we will have to have some kind of universal basic income. I don’t think we’re going to have a choice.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
Universal basic income?

[Elon Musk:]
Universal base income, I think it’s going to be necessary.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
So that means that unemployed people will be paid across the globe.

[Elon Musk:]
Yeah.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
Because there is no job, machine or robot is taking over.

[Elon Musk:]
There will be fewer and fewer jobs that a robot cannot do better.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
Okay.

[Elon Musk:] Source: LYBIO.net
But that’s simply that – and I want to be clear that these are not things that I think that I wish would happen. These are things simply things that I think probably will happen. And since – if my assessment is correct and they probably will happen, then we need to say what are we going to do about it, and I think some kind of a universal big basic income is going to be necessary.

Now the output of goods and services will be extremely high. So with automation, there will come abundance. There will be – almost everything will get very cheap. I think the biggest – I think we’ll all just end up doing universal basic income, it’s going to be necessary.

The harder challenge, much harder challenge is how do people then have meaning. Like a lot of people they drive their meaning from their employment. So if you don’t have – if you’re not needed, if there’s not a need for your labor, how do you – what’s the meaning? Do you have meaning? Do you feel useless? These are much – that’s a much harder problem to deal with. And then how do we ensure that the future is going to be the future that we want, that we still like.

Now, I mean I do think that there’s a potential path here which is really getting into the science fiction or create you know, sort of advance science stuff, but having some sort of merger with biological intelligence and machine intelligence.

To some degree we are already a cyborg.

You think of like the digital tools that you have, your phone, your computer, the applications that you have, like the fact that I was mentioning earlier, you can ask a question and instantly get an answer from Google or from other things.

And so you already have a digital tertiary layer. I say tertiary because you can think of the Olympic system, kind of the animal brain or the primal brain, and then the cortex kind of the thinking, planning part of the brain, and then your digital self as a third layer.

So you already have that – and then think of if somebody dies, the digital goes but they are still around, all of their e-mails and the pictures that they posted and their social media, that’ still lives even if they’re physically – if they died.

So over time I think we’ll probably see a closer merger of biological intelligence and digital intelligence. And it’s mostly about the bandwidth, the speed of the connection between your brain and your digital – the digital extension of yourself; particularly output. Like when, in output, if anything is getting worse, we used to have like keyboards that we used a lot, now we do most of our inputs through our thumbs on a phone, and that’s just very slow. A computer can communicate at a trillion bits per second, but your thumb can may be do, I don’t know, 10 bits per second or 100 if you’re being generous.

So some high bandwidth interfaced to the brain. I think will be something that helps achieve us some BIOS between human and machine intelligence, and may be solves the control problem and the usefulness problem. It’s getting pretty hysteric here, I don’t know if this is – Yes.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
It’s close..

[Elon Musk:]
Okay.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
We got it. Always you think out of the box, your idea is so huge. You want to go to space – you decided to go to space, you did it. You decided that you want to land your rocket back, you failed; seven times, eight times?

[Elon Musk:]
Yeah, something like that.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
That landed.

[Elon Musk:]
More times that I can count.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
How do you come with this idea of choice? Sometime they’re pushing the human limit. You are always pushing the human limit. Why?

[Elon Musk:] Source: LYBIO.net
Well, I think about what technology solution is necessary in order to achieve the particular goal and then try to make as much progress in that direction as possible. So in the case of spaceflight, the critical breakthrough for spaceflight is rapid and complete reusability of rockets, just as we have for aircraft.

You could imagine that if an aircraft was single use, almost no one would fly, because you can buy, like say, 747 might be $250 million, $300 million, something like that. You need two of them for a roundtrip, but nobody’s going to pay millions of dollars per ticket to fly to do air travel. So, but because you can reuse the aircraft tens of thousands of times, the air travel becomes much more affordable, and the same is true of rockets.

So our rocket costs $60 million roughly. So the capital cost if it can be used once is $60 million, but the capital cost if it can be used thousand times is $60,000.

So then if you can carry a lot of people per flight, then you can get the cost of spaceflight to be something not far from the cost of air flight. So it’s extremely fundamental because Earth’s gravity well is quite deep, Earth has a fairly high gravity.

The difficulty of making a rocket reusable is much greater than the difficulty of making aircraft reusable. That’s why fully reusable rocket has never been developed thus far. But if you use the most advanced materials, most advanced design techniques, and you get everything just right, then I’m confident that you can do a fully reusable rocket. Fortunately, if Earth’s gravity was even 10% stronger, I would say it would be impossible.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
You need a team around you to deliver a lot of idea. How do you choose your team? Based on what?

[Elon Musk:]
Well, I suppose honestly that it tends to be gut feel more than anything else. So when I interview somebody – my interview questions always the same, it’s just.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
What do you ask?

[Elon Musk:]
I’d say tell me the story of your life and the decisions that you made along the way and why you made them. And then also tell me about some of the most difficult problems you’ve worked on and how you solved them.

And that question I think is very important because the people that really solve the problem, they know exactly how they solved it, they know the little details. And the people that pretended to solve the problem, they can maybe go one level, and then they get stuck.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
So what was your biggest challenge in life?

[Elon Musk:]
Biggest challenge in life? Uh… um…

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
No challenge?

[Elon Musk:]
Well, no, there’s a lot of them.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
Which one?

[Elon Musk:]
I’m trying to decide which is the worst. I think just thinking about how to spend time. I remember the biggest challenge I think is making sure you have corrective feedback loop, and then maintaining that corrective feedback loop over time even when people want to tell you exactly what you want to hear.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
Ya.

[Elon Musk:]
That’s very difficult.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
Yes. The time is over. I’ll ask you just one last question.

[Elon Musk:]
Sure.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
If you allow me. In the World Government Summit we have so many people from – so many young people actually from across the globe. If you have an advice to the young people globally want to be like Elon Musk, what’s you advice for them?

[Elon Musk:]
I think that probably they shouldn’t want to be.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
You?

[Elon Musk:]
I think it sounds better than it is.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
Okay.

[Elon Musk:]
Yeah, it’s not as much fun being me as you think, I don’t know.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
You don’t think so?

[Elon Musk:]
No. It’s definitely – it could be worse for sure, but it’s – I’m not sure I would – I’m sure I want to be me.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
Okay.

[Applause]

[Elon Musk:] Source: LYBIO.net
But. You know I think advice – I mean if you want to make progress in things, I think that the best analytical framework for – I’d say in the future is physics, I’d recommend studying the thinking process around physics, like, not the equations, I mean the equations certainly they’re helpful, but the way of thinking in physics is – that’s the best framework for understanding things that are counterintuitive. And always taking the position that you are at some degree wrong and your goal is to be less wrong over time.

One of the biggest mistakes people generally make and I’m guilty of it too is wishful thinking.

You know like you want something to be true even if it isn’t true; and so you ignore the things that – you ignore the real truth because of what you want to be true. This is a very difficult trap to avoid and like I said, that I find myself in having problems with.

But if you just take that approach of you’re always some degree wrong and your goal is to be less wrong. And solicit critical feedback particularly from friends, particular friends – if somebody loves you, they want the best for you; they don’t want to tell you the bad thing. So you have to ask them, say it, I really do want to know, and then they’ll tell you.

[Mohammad Abdullah Al Gergawi:]
Thank you very much. It’s been – [Applause] it is great for the World Government Summit to have a legend who’s creating the future for humanity to share his thought, his idea, his vision, his challenges and his soul for life. Thank you very much.

[Elon Musk:] Source: L Y B I O . N E T
Thanks for having me.

Elon Musk At The World Government Summit 2017 In Dubai Conversation With Mohammad AlgergawiElon Musk At The World Government Summit 2017 In Dubai Conversation With Mohammad Algergawi

Elon Musk At The World Government Summit 2017 In Dubai Conversation With Mohammad Algergawi

Elon Musk At The World Government Summit 2017 In Dubai Conversation With Mohammad Algergawi. I think we’ll end up doing universal basic income. Complete Full Transcript, Dialogue, Remarks, Saying, Quotes, Words And Text.